Today: UA 3614 at 19:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–22%.

Safest bet today UA 3614 ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest UA 1278 ORD 17:54 → CMH 20:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3614 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:45	CMH 22:24	6%	3%	0.6%	73%
AA 4445 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:55	CMH 23:33	7%	3%	0.6%	72%
YX 3592 Republic	ORD 09:17	CMH 11:46	7%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 3554 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:48	CMH 15:28	7%	2%	0.2%	86%
YX 3565 Republic	ORD 13:14	CMH 15:52	8%	2%	0.2%	no record
YX 4683 Republic	ORD 11:59	CMH 14:28	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
AA 3447 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:29	CMH 22:03	10%	3%	0.6%	66%
UA 2849 United Flight history →	ORD 10:40	CMH 13:17	10%	3%	0.2%	78%
UA 3570 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:34	CMH 19:13	10%	3%	0.2%	86%
AA 3361 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:15	CMH 17:49	10%	2%	0.3%	81%
UA 3674 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:45	CMH 20:24	11%	3%	0.3%	79%
AA 4337 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:46	CMH 20:25	11%	3%	0.3%	61%
MQ 3815 Envoy	ORD 11:17	CMH 13:44	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 3542 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:33	CMH 18:05	11%	2%	0.4%	84%
UA 1069 United Flight history →	ORD 14:18	CMH 16:53	12%	4%	0.2%	69%
AA 3540 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 16:30	CMH 19:03	12%	3%	0.5%	80%
AA 4950 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:41	CMH 15:15	13%	7%	0.3%	78%
UA 2063 United	ORD 11:00	CMH 13:26	14%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 4954 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:18	CMH 13:50	16%	7%	0.2%	71%
UA 1492 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	CMH 23:59	18%	6%	0.5%	67%
AA 4288 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:30	CMH 19:48	18%	3%	0.4%	65%
OO 5304 SkyWest	ORD 16:32	CMH 18:54	21%	7%	0.3%	no record
UA 1278 United	ORD 17:54	CMH 20:16	22%	5%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON