Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2666 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2666 ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest UA 1882 ORD 16:15 → DEN 17:47 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2666 United Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DEN 06:41	4%	2%	0.2%	98%
UA 2806 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	DEN 07:42	5%	2%	0.2%	97%
UA 1217 United Flight history →	ORD 07:05	DEN 08:55	7%	3%	0.2%	92%
UA 526 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	DEN 10:31	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 318 United	ORD 08:55	DEN 10:43	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4102 Envoy	ORD 07:22	DEN 09:12	9%	3%	0.3%	no record
AA 1747 American Flight history →	ORD 06:45	DEN 08:28	9%	5%	0.2%	75%
UA 581 United Flight history →	ORD 10:54	DEN 12:45	9%	3%	0.6%	97%
UA 1150 United Flight history →	ORD 12:56	DEN 14:46	12%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 2857 United	ORD 11:11	DEN 12:58	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 767 United Flight history →	ORD 20:00	DEN 22:01	14%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 1277 American	ORD 12:03	DEN 13:59	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1744 American Flight history →	ORD 10:00	DEN 11:44	15%	4%	0.8%	85%
UA 377 United Flight history →	ORD 21:50	DEN 23:48	15%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 1974 United Flight history →	ORD 18:17	DEN 20:22	16%	5%	0.6%	58%
UA 2809 United	ORD 13:00	DEN 14:44	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2324 United	ORD 13:44	DEN 15:29	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2803 United Flight history →	ORD 14:33	DEN 16:31	16%	5%	0.6%	76%
AA 2363 American Flight history →	ORD 09:43	DEN 11:16	16%	5%	0.7%	80%
UA 2802 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	DEN 15:17	16%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 1387 American Flight history →	ORD 22:35	DEN 00:17	18%	4%	0.8%	57%
AA 1760 American Flight history →	ORD 12:00	DEN 13:44	19%	6%	0.7%	64%
F9 1483 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:27	DEN 08:08	20%	8%	0.8%	71%
UA 2769 United Flight history →	ORD 16:12	DEN 18:13	20%	5%	0.6%	61%
AA 1317 American	ORD 15:26	DEN 17:31	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 329 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DEN 21:20	23%	5%	0.6%	75%
AA 1734 American Flight history →	ORD 15:15	DEN 17:00	24%	5%	0.7%	66%
UA 1882 United	ORD 16:15	DEN 17:47	26%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON