Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 2809 · ORD → LGA

departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 7:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2809 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?