Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2809 · ORD → LGA

departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 7:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2809 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?