Today: AA 4676 at 11:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–24%.

Safest bet today AA 4676 ORD 11:30 → DSM 13:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 4973 ORD 16:30 → DSM 18:03 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4676 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:30	DSM 13:05	9%	4%	0.3%	89%
YX 4548 Republic	ORD 22:40	DSM 00:09	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 4442 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 22:31	DSM 00:01	10%	4%	0.7%	71%
UA 466 United	ORD 09:22	DSM 10:44	10%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 1781 United Flight history →	ORD 12:57	DSM 14:24	11%	4%	0.3%	87%
UA 1658 United	ORD 13:04	DSM 14:30	12%	5%	0.3%	no record
YX 4510 Republic	ORD 17:16	DSM 18:45	16%	6%	0.5%	no record
OO 4933 SkyWest	ORD 12:18	DSM 13:49	18%	9%	0.5%	no record
OO 5412 SkyWest	ORD 11:23	DSM 12:55	19%	8%	0.5%	no record
UA 2836 United	ORD 16:15	DSM 17:33	20%	8%	0.4%	no record
OO 4659 SkyWest	ORD 22:22	DSM 23:55	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1839 United Flight history →	ORD 21:25	DSM 22:56	22%	8%	0.6%	60%
UA 1325 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DSM 21:22	22%	8%	0.6%	64%
UA 5230 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:36	DSM 18:09	24%	11%	0.5%	51%
AA 4973 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:30	DSM 18:03	24%	12%	0.6%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON