Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1421 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1421 ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 864 ORD 14:35 → FLL 18:49 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1421 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:13	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 1851 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:04	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 279 United Flight history →	ORD 10:59	FLL 15:13	10%	3%	0.6%	76%
AA 1461 American	ORD 08:06	FLL 12:25	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2635 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	FLL 18:15	13%	4%	0.6%	69%
UA 2294 United Flight history →	ORD 17:59	FLL 22:15	13%	5%	0.6%	66%
B6 664 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:14	14%	5%	0.7%	89%
AA 672 American Flight history →	ORD 12:35	FLL 16:43	15%	4%	0.7%	56%
F9 2205 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 08:05	FLL 12:22	20%	6%	0.8%	68%
B6 864 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 14:35	FLL 18:49	24%	8%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON