Today: MQ 4251 at 23:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–28%.

Safest bet today MQ 4251 ORD 23:05 → FSD 00:57 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5359 ORD 16:05 → FSD 17:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 4251 Envoy	ORD 23:05	FSD 00:57	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1842 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	FSD 23:31	17%	7%	0.2%	60%
AA 6200 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:31	FSD 19:26	25%	19%	0.3%	27%
AA 4942 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 22:30	FSD 00:18	26%	14%	0.7%	61%
OO 5359 SkyWest	ORD 16:05	FSD 17:48	28%	16%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON