Today: DL 5741 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet today DL 5741 ORD 06:00 → JFK 09:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1315 ORD 16:24 → JFK 19:26 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5741 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 06:00	JFK 09:24	5%	3%	0.2%	89%
YX 5662 Republic	ORD 06:06	JFK 09:17	5%	2%	0.2%	no record
YX 4495 Republic	ORD 07:42	JFK 10:53	5%	2%	0.2%	no record
AA 4350 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:51	JFK 14:30	10%	4%	0.4%	85%
B6 906 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 07:09	JFK 10:18	10%	5%	0.5%	88%
B6 1206 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 06:00	JFK 09:17	10%	4%	0.6%	81%
AA 4371 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:50	JFK 16:28	14%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 819 American	ORD 10:42	JFK 14:03	19%	8%	0.3%	no record
B6 1006 JetBlue	ORD 10:59	JFK 14:08	25%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 2485 American Flight history →	ORD 13:39	JFK 17:04	28%	9%	1.2%	65%
AA 1421 American Flight history →	ORD 16:30	JFK 20:04	30%	10%	1.3%	57%
B6 406 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 17:27	JFK 21:00	31%	10%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
AA 1315 American	ORD 16:24	JFK 19:26	34%	9%	1.3%	no record
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:05	JFK 13:30	27%	16%	6.2%	73%
DL 5035 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:00	JFK 16:37	29%	14%	11.6%	71%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 18:00	JFK 21:40	51%	22%	23.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON