Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 574 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 574 ORD 07:11 → LAS 09:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 2145 ORD 21:12 → LAS 23:05 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 574 United Flight history →	ORD 07:11	LAS 09:19	5%	2%	0.4%	97%
AA 1592 American	ORD 06:48	LAS 08:41	10%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 1803 United	ORD 11:11	LAS 13:12	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2811 United	ORD 09:37	LAS 11:34	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 704 United	ORD 13:44	LAS 15:43	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1564 American	ORD 11:08	LAS 13:23	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1875 United Flight history →	ORD 15:54	LAS 17:57	18%	6%	0.6%	75%
UA 1215 United Flight history →	ORD 16:30	LAS 18:33	19%	5%	0.6%	67%
UA 2242 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	LAS 21:59	20%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 777 United Flight history →	ORD 20:28	LAS 22:25	21%	5%	0.6%	76%
AA 2016 American Flight history →	ORD 10:26	LAS 12:22	22%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 1880 American Flight history →	ORD 22:00	LAS 23:53	22%	6%	0.8%	47%
UA 1703 United	ORD 18:47	LAS 20:40	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 365 United	ORD 16:30	LAS 18:15	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1475 American	ORD 13:58	LAS 16:14	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 1465 American Flight history →	ORD 20:59	LAS 22:54	25%	9%	0.8%	48%
AA 3292 American Flight history →	ORD 17:31	LAS 19:29	26%	9%	0.7%	58%
AA 1353 American	ORD 17:05	LAS 19:27	27%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2877 American Flight history →	ORD 13:29	LAS 15:24	27%	7%	0.7%	65%
AA 3323 American Flight history →	ORD 20:59	LAS 22:47	28%	9%	0.8%	58%
F9 2145 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 21:12	LAS 23:05	33%	11%	1.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON