tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 41 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2767 at 06:00, 8%.

Safest bet that day DL 2767 ORD 06:00 → LGA 09:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1724 ORD 18:28 → LGA 21:49 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time
Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 2767 Delta Flight history → ORD 06:00 LGA 09:09 8% 3% 0.8% 92%
UA 2617 United Flight history → ORD 06:00 LGA 09:11 9% 3% 0.8% 89%
AA 327 American Flight history → ORD 06:00 LGA 09:17 10% 3% 1.8% 91%
DL 2633 Delta Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:14 11% 3% 0.7% 77%
UA 1657 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:17 11% 4% 0.7% 82%
AA 2723 American Flight history → ORD 06:59 LGA 10:15 13% 4% 1.6% 79%
UA 2092 United Flight history → ORD 08:00 LGA 11:17 15% 4% 0.7% 86%
DL 2252 Delta Flight history → ORD 09:30 LGA 12:46 18% 4% 0.7% 90%
AA 2079 American Flight history → ORD 08:00 LGA 11:19 18% 5% 1.6% 82%
AA 2914 American ORD 08:09 LGA 11:18 20% 5% 1.6% no record
DL 1642 Delta ORD 09:32 LGA 12:37 20% 4% 0.7% no record
UA 709 United Flight history → ORD 09:00 LGA 12:23 20% 6% 0.7% 75%
UA 1258 United Flight history → ORD 09:23 LGA 12:36 22% 6% 0.7% 76%
UA 669 United Flight history → ORD 10:03 LGA 13:26 23% 7% 0.7% 82%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history → ORD 10:30 LGA 13:48 25% 6% 0.7% 72%
DL 2503 Delta Flight history → ORD 20:10 LGA 23:44 28% 9% 0.7% 58%
AA 3128 American Flight history → ORD 10:16 LGA 13:44 30% 8% 1.2% 71%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history → ORD 19:05 LGA 22:34 30% 10% 0.7% 64%
DL 2985 Delta Flight history → ORD 11:30 LGA 15:00 31% 6% 0.7% 78%
AA 388 American Flight history → ORD 10:20 LGA 13:34 33% 8% 1.2% 71%
UA 1775 United Flight history → ORD 11:00 LGA 14:23 33% 9% 0.7% 69%
UA 529 United ORD 11:15 LGA 14:36 35% 10% 0.7% no record
UA 1655 United Flight history → ORD 19:45 LGA 23:15 35% 10% 0.7% 50%
DL 2239 Delta Flight history → ORD 14:28 LGA 17:50 36% 9% 0.7% 63%
UA 2267 United Flight history → ORD 12:00 LGA 15:23 37% 10% 0.7% 69%
UA 786 United ORD 11:56 LGA 15:02 37% 9% 0.7% no record
AA 679 American Flight history → ORD 19:59 LGA 23:21 38% 10% 1.3% 63%
DL 2336 Delta Flight history → ORD 17:35 LGA 21:00 39% 11% 0.7% 51%
AA 903 American ORD 11:06 LGA 14:36 39% 10% 1.2% no record
UA 1617 United Flight history → ORD 15:00 LGA 18:22 40% 12% 0.7% 59%
UA 2189 United Flight history → ORD 13:00 LGA 16:22 41% 10% 0.7% 65%
UA 2306 United Flight history → ORD 17:00 LGA 20:22 41% 13% 0.7% 51%
UA 2809 United Flight history → ORD 16:00 LGA 19:22 41% 14% 0.7% 42%
AA 2086 American Flight history → ORD 16:30 LGA 19:53 41% 10% 1.2% 50%
AA 2059 American Flight history → ORD 11:00 LGA 14:19 41% 9% 1.3% 73%worse than usual
UA 1821 United Flight history → ORD 14:00 LGA 17:22 44% 13% 0.7% 65%
UA 2605 United Flight history → ORD 18:25 LGA 21:54 44% 13% 0.7% 54%
AA 3050 American Flight history → ORD 15:04 LGA 18:24 44% 12% 1.2% 65%
UA 1623 United Flight history → ORD 18:00 LGA 21:25 46% 13% 0.7% 41%
AA 1478 American Flight history → ORD 13:14 LGA 16:34 46% 9% 1.2% 63%
AA 1724 American Flight history → ORD 18:28 LGA 21:49 48% 14% 1.2% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON