Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3747 ORD 08:00 → MHT 11:31 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 4149 ORD 19:59 → MHT 23:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3747 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:00	MHT 11:31	8%	2%	0.2%	100%
MQ 3634 Envoy	ORD 08:51	MHT 12:02	10%	2%	0.1%	no record
AA 3720 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:27	MHT 16:51	12%	3%	0.1%	78%
AA 4149 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:59	MHT 23:30	16%	3%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON