tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3750 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 3750 ORD 08:20 → MKE 09:13 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4993 ORD 17:46 → MKE 18:36 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time
Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 3750 United ORD 08:20 MKE 09:13 13% 4% 0.4% no record
AA 6263 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 06:59 MKE 08:02 13% 4% 0.6% 81%
OO 6241 SkyWest ORD 07:03 MKE 07:52 14% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 5842 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 08:45 MKE 09:53 15% 6% 0.7% 73%
UA 5821 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 09:20 MKE 10:28 15% 6% 0.7% 73%
OO 5838 SkyWest ORD 06:03 MKE 06:52 15% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 5234 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 10:50 MKE 11:52 16% 8% 0.7% 77%
OO 4984 SkyWest ORD 10:28 MKE 11:33 17% 8% 0.7% no record
UA 5720 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 11:47 MKE 12:48 19% 8% 0.7% 75%
UA 5362 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 21:20 MKE 22:29 19% 6% 0.7% 69%
AA 6357 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 21:20 MKE 22:21 19% 6% 0.8% 51%
AA 6261 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 11:46 MKE 12:45 20% 8% 0.7% 69%
UA 5555 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 17:45 MKE 18:48 21% 8% 0.7% 52%
UA 5956 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 18:15 MKE 19:26 22% 7% 0.7% 66%
UA 4711 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 19:45 MKE 20:56 22% 7% 0.8% 70%
AA 4888 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 19:59 MKE 21:01 22% 8% 0.8% 53%
UA 5345 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 15:36 MKE 16:42 22% 7% 0.7% 84%
UA 5933 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 13:30 MKE 14:36 22% 9% 0.8% 67%
OO 4990 SkyWest ORD 13:43 MKE 14:45 22% 9% 0.8% no record
AA 6211 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 17:21 MKE 18:23 22% 9% 0.8% 58%
AA 6273 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 19:15 MKE 20:19 23% 8% 0.7% 37%
AA 4941 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 18:58 MKE 19:59 24% 8% 0.8% 64%
UA 5668 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 14:02 MKE 14:52 25% 8% 0.7% 66%
UA 5262 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 16:31 MKE 17:21 25% 7% 0.7% 76%
AA 4993 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 17:46 MKE 18:36 26% 9% 0.7% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON