Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3728 at 23:00, 18%.

Safest bet today AA 3728 ORD 23:00 → MSN 00:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 1251 ORD 21:23 → MSN 22:22 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3728 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 23:00	MSN 00:10	18%	8%	0.7%	74%
YX 4776 Republic	ORD 23:00	MSN 00:03	21%	9%	0.4%	no record
YX 4601 Republic	ORD 22:00	MSN 23:03	25%	9%	0.4%	no record
YX 4441 Republic	ORD 17:44	MSN 18:28	28%	8%	0.3%	no record
UA 4740 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:45	MSN 18:57	29%	14%	0.5%	50%
OO 5679 SkyWest	ORD 18:11	MSN 19:10	35%	19%	0.4%	no record
UA 630 United Flight history →	ORD 19:44	MSN 20:43	39%	22%	0.2%	62%
UA 1251 United	ORD 21:23	MSN 22:22	42%	20%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON