tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2232 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2232 ORD 07:00 → MSP 08:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3131 ORD 11:53 → MSP 13:24 · 26% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2232 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 MSP 08:41 6% 2% 0.6% 89%
AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 08:15 MSP 10:01 6% 2% 0.6% 91%
DL 1717 Delta Flight history → ORD 06:30 MSP 08:04 6% 2% 0.6% 86%
UA 2805 United Flight history → ORD 08:50 MSP 10:36 7% 3% 0.6% 89%
AA 3375 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 11:47 MSP 13:32 8% 3% 0.6% 88%
AA 4472 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 22:36 MSP 00:22 8% 4% 0.7% 73%
MQ 4001 Envoy ORD 06:45 MSP 08:13 8% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 1554 Delta Flight history → ORD 08:27 MSP 10:02 9% 2% 0.5% 78%
DL 724 Delta ORD 08:32 MSP 10:01 9% 3% 0.5% no record
AA 4727 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 13:40 MSP 15:29 9% 3% 0.6% 82%
DL 2028 Delta ORD 06:18 MSP 07:47 11% 3% 0.3% no record
DL 1567 Delta Flight history → ORD 12:27 MSP 14:10 11% 3% 0.5% 67%
DL 2130 Delta Flight history → ORD 20:21 MSP 22:12 11% 5% 0.6% 59%
MQ 3552 Envoy ORD 08:21 MSP 09:49 13% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 4425 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 15:43 MSP 17:32 13% 3% 0.6% 74%
UA 5684 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 10:25 MSP 12:17 14% 5% 0.6% 79%
UA 215 United Flight history → ORD 10:49 MSP 12:26 14% 4% 0.6% 79%
UA 2749 United Flight history → ORD 12:40 MSP 14:20 15% 4% 0.6% 78%
AA 4746 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 16:00 MSP 17:33 16% 3% 0.6% 92%
UA 2005 United Flight history → ORD 19:57 MSP 21:41 16% 5% 0.6% 58%
UA 2298 United Flight history → ORD 14:30 MSP 16:13 16% 5% 0.6% 74%
UA 1131 United Flight history → ORD 21:28 MSP 23:10 16% 5% 0.6% 59%
DL 1533 Delta Flight history → ORD 15:55 MSP 17:40 17% 4% 0.5% 62%
UA 1935 United Flight history → ORD 16:18 MSP 18:13 18% 6% 0.6% 70%
DL 1306 Delta Flight history → ORD 17:54 MSP 19:31 19% 5% 0.6% 51%
UA 467 United Flight history → ORD 12:30 MSP 13:59 19% 5% 0.6% 70%
UA 5871 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 16:03 MSP 17:53 22% 6% 0.6% 76%
AA 3133 American ORD 13:22 MSP 15:06 23% 7% 0.8% no record
AA 3131 American ORD 11:53 MSP 13:24 26% 6% 0.9% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON