Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2778 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2778 ORD 07:23 → MSY 09:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2198 ORD 14:20 → MSY 16:47 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2778 United	ORD 07:23	MSY 09:50	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
YX 4464 Republic	ORD 08:02	MSY 10:37	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 3658 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 14:05	MSY 16:49	10%	3%	0.7%	78%
UA 1532 United	ORD 11:00	MSY 13:30	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1850 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	MSY 12:55	15%	4%	0.7%	95%
UA 1761 United Flight history →	ORD 20:11	MSY 22:46	19%	6%	0.8%	63%
OO 5689 SkyWest	ORD 14:07	MSY 16:37	24%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 3896 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:20	MSY 23:47	25%	4%	1.6%	62%
AA 2198 American Flight history →	ORD 14:20	MSY 16:47	25%	6%	0.9%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON