Today: AA 4434 at 14:32 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–21%.

Safest bet today AA 4434 ORD 14:32 → ORF 17:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest UA 5686 ORD 18:15 → ORF 21:43 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4434 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 14:32	ORF 17:56	10%	4%	0.2%	69%
YX 3607 Republic	ORD 17:53	ORF 21:17	10%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:52	ORF 18:16	11%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 2807 United Flight history →	ORD 11:52	ORF 15:06	12%	4%	0.2%	83%
YX 4519 Republic	ORD 18:56	ORF 22:20	15%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 5449 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:22	ORF 15:50	17%	8%	0.5%	83%
UA 5686 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:15	ORF 21:43	21%	11%	0.5%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON