Today: UA 1807 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet today UA 1807 ORD 07:21 → PVD 10:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5691 ORD 18:44 → PVD 22:19 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1807 United	ORD 07:21	PVD 10:47	5%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 3453 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:30	PVD 13:01	5%	2%	0.3%	97%
MQ 4212 Envoy	ORD 08:37	PVD 12:06	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 4703 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:45	PVD 14:25	11%	4%	0.2%	87%
OO 5676 SkyWest	ORD 11:23	PVD 15:02	13%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 3771 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:09	PVD 18:24	13%	3%	0.4%	84%
UA 5442 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:50	PVD 21:33	14%	6%	0.6%	74%
AA 1293 American Flight history →	ORD 19:14	PVD 22:43	15%	8%	1.2%	63%
OO 5691 SkyWest	ORD 18:44	PVD 22:19	16%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON