Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4756 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4756 ORD 09:30 → RDU 12:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1294 ORD 16:31 → RDU 19:33 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4756 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:30	RDU 12:49	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
YX 3600 Republic	ORD 09:05	RDU 12:16	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4354 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:55	RDU 13:06	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 4615 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:22	RDU 23:42	6%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 4503 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:20	RDU 16:31	8%	3%	0.6%	65%
AA 4518 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 15:59	RDU 19:23	8%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 2616 United Flight history →	ORD 10:48	RDU 14:01	9%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 3696 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:29	RDU 17:44	10%	3%	0.6%	70%
UA 5326 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:10	RDU 12:33	11%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 5926 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:55	RDU 10:08	13%	5%	0.7%	83%
OO 5764 SkyWest	ORD 07:27	RDU 10:34	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1142 United	ORD 13:09	RDU 16:15	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2091 United Flight history →	ORD 14:13	RDU 17:27	15%	5%	0.6%	79%
AA 2949 American Flight history →	ORD 11:57	RDU 15:12	16%	5%	1.3%	74%
UA 1989 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	RDU 21:37	17%	5%	0.6%	53%
AA 2167 American Flight history →	ORD 20:56	RDU 23:59	24%	8%	1.9%	58%
AA 1294 American	ORD 16:31	RDU 19:33	28%	8%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON