Today: UA 3425 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–25%.

Safest bet today UA 3425 ORD 06:45 → ROC 09:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1568 ORD 18:29 → ROC 21:22 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3425 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 06:45	ROC 09:37	8%	2%	0.2%	92%
AA 3823 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:17	ROC 00:11	10%	3%	0.7%	77%
MQ 4192 Envoy	ORD 17:23	ROC 20:20	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4219 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:03	ROC 23:56	11%	2%	0.7%	75%
UA 3629 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:52	ROC 14:49	14%	3%	0.3%	93%
UA 5919 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:58	ROC 09:42	17%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 1239 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	ROC 16:45	20%	5%	0.5%	71%
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:04	ROC 20:02	22%	6%	0.7%	59%
MQ 4191 Envoy	ORD 08:03	ROC 10:45	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3443 Envoy	ORD 12:00	ROC 14:42	24%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1568 United Flight history →	ORD 18:29	ROC 21:22	25%	6%	0.5%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON