Today: UA 559 at 13:44 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–48%.

Safest bet today UA 559 ORD 13:44 → SAN 16:06 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1478 ORD 19:49 → SAN 21:57 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 559 United	ORD 13:44	SAN 16:06	23%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 2683 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	SAN 15:25	25%	6%	0.2%	81%
UA 1531 United Flight history →	ORD 20:05	SAN 22:34	28%	5%	0.3%	77%
UA 745 United Flight history →	ORD 16:05	SAN 18:32	29%	7%	0.2%	67%
UA 2138 United	ORD 16:05	SAN 18:21	31%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 1564 United	ORD 20:11	SAN 22:24	31%	6%	0.3%	no record
AA 1785 American	ORD 20:52	SAN 23:32	35%	9%	0.6%	no record
AS 1447 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:20	SAN 16:59	36%	14%	0.9%	70%
AA 1861 American Flight history →	ORD 19:06	SAN 21:46	38%	9%	0.5%	70%
AA 1160 American Flight history →	ORD 16:05	SAN 18:25	38%	9%	0.4%	53%
AA 1543 American Flight history →	ORD 16:53	SAN 19:05	38%	9%	0.5%	68%
AA 2457 American Flight history →	ORD 21:10	SAN 23:26	38%	8%	0.6%	45%
AA 1924 American Flight history →	ORD 19:00	SAN 21:22	39%	9%	0.5%	60%
AS 1466 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 19:59	SAN 22:33	44%	14%	0.8%	54%
AS 1478 Alaska	ORD 19:49	SAN 21:57	48%	14%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON