Today: AA 3800 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–26%.

Safest bet today AA 3800 ORD 08:16 → SGF 10:03 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest OO 4739 ORD 16:02 → SGF 17:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3800 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:16	SGF 10:03	9%	1%	0.3%	97%
MQ 3725 Envoy	ORD 21:07	SGF 22:56	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3802 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:56	SGF 13:40	10%	2%	0.3%	89%
MQ 3584 Envoy	ORD 08:13	SGF 09:50	11%	2%	0.3%	no record
MQ 3388 Envoy	ORD 15:07	SGF 16:52	14%	3%	0.4%	no record
OO 5525 SkyWest	ORD 08:52	SGF 10:31	15%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 3626 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:29	SGF 19:17	18%	4%	0.4%	72%
OO 5664 SkyWest	ORD 12:45	SGF 14:24	19%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 5296 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:00	SGF 17:53	25%	8%	0.3%	71%
OO 4747 SkyWest	ORD 21:27	SGF 23:05	26%	8%	0.7%	no record
OO 4739 SkyWest	ORD 16:02	SGF 17:40	26%	8%	0.3%	no record
UA 4451 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:30	SGF 23:27	13%	7%	11.5%	87%
UA 4529 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:50	SGF 10:44	26%	14%	0.7%	74%
UA 4436 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:45	SGF 14:32	28%	13%	2.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON