Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2145 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2145 ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1094 ORD 21:08 → SMF 23:34 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2145 United Flight history →	ORD 09:04	SMF 11:51	7%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 2735 American	ORD 10:21	SMF 13:19	11%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1828 United Flight history →	ORD 19:53	SMF 22:39	14%	6%	0.6%	62%
AA 2627 American Flight history →	ORD 11:43	SMF 14:10	15%	6%	0.7%	67%
UA 1519 United	ORD 16:05	SMF 18:27	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1094 American Flight history →	ORD 21:08	SMF 23:34	20%	6%	0.8%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON