Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:25 pm at Norfolk); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1621 Delta Flight history →	ORF 17:06	DTW 18:59	24%	5%	0.2%	67%
OO 3737 SkyWest	ORF 17:17	DTW 19:16	24%	8%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORF 17:00 → ORD 18:41UA 5334 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic	6h 54m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	ORF 15:30 → MDW 16:35WN 3187	3h 00m Chicago	MDW 19:35 → DTW 21:45WN 2746	6h 15m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	ORF 13:52 → ATL 15:45DL 2925	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	6h 21m	95%	70%
American Details →	ORF 17:22 → PHL 18:48AA 4749 · flown by Republic	3h 31m Philadelphia	PHL 22:19 → DTW 00:16 +1AA 5418 · flown by PSA	6h 54m	94%	69%
American Details →	ORF 13:35 → CLT 14:57AA 1323	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 17:22 → DTW 19:05AA 1443	5h 30m	97%	68%
American Details →	ORF 18:24 → CLT 20:02AA 5339 · flown by PSA	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 22:52 → DTW 00:45 +1AA 2988	6h 21m	96%	66%
Delta Details →	ORF 16:55 → ATL 18:46DL 1101	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → DTW 23:44DL 651	6h 49m	91%	66%
Southwest Details →	ORF 18:10 → BWI 19:15WN 1665	3h 25m Baltimore	BWI 22:40 → DTW 00:20 +1WN 942	6h 10m	93%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORF 15:17 → DFW 17:41AA 2262	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:47 → DTW 22:36AA 3108	7h 19m	67%	47%
American Details →	ORF 15:01 → CLT 16:29AA 5598 · flown by PSA	53m Charlotte	CLT 17:22 → DTW 19:05AA 1443	4h 04m	66%	46%
Delta Details →	ORF 18:13 → LGA 19:38DL 5348 · flown by Endeavor	52m New York	LGA 20:30 → DTW 22:51DL 1014	4h 38m	63%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON