tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:52 am at Norfolk); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 17:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORF 17:00 → ORD 18:41UA 5334 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665 8h 34m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → ORF 11:58 → ORD 13:31AA 4643 · flown by Republic 3h 46m Chicago ORD 17:17 → IAH 20:14AA 2708 9h 16m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → ORF 16:21 → DEN 18:20UA 1390 2h 50m Denver DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253 9h 20m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → ORF 18:17 → ATL 20:22DL 2329 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 6h 40m 94% 72%
DeltaDetails → ORF 17:06 → DTW 18:59DL 1621 1h 26m Detroit DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633 6h 18m 86% 63%
UnitedDetails → ORF 15:00 → IAD 16:09UA 4023 · flown by Mesa 1h 50m Dulles IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217 6h 25m 92% 63%
UnitedDetails → ORF 19:59 → IAD 21:13UA 4810 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 07m Dulles IAD 22:20 → IAH 00:44 +1UA 1463 5h 45m 82% 62%
DeltaDetails → ORF 13:52 → ATL 15:45DL 2925 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → IAH 20:16DL 2327 7h 24m 96% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORF 19:12 → DFW 21:50AA 2288 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914 5h 46m 60% 37%
AmericanDetails → ORF 15:17 → DFW 17:41AA 2262 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 5h 37m 63% 33%
AmericanDetails → ORF 17:46 → DCA 18:54AA 5601 · flown by PSA 1h 02m Washington DCA 19:56 → IAH 22:14AA 5222 · flown by PSA 5h 28m 55% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON