Today: AA 4621 at 11:19 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–31%.

Safest bet today AA 4621 ORF 11:19 → LGA 13:07 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest AA 4471 ORF 18:11 → LGA 19:48 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4621 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 11:19	LGA 13:07	21%	7%	0.4%	68%
AA 4473 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 11:38	LGA 13:13	25%	7%	0.5%	81%
AA 4358 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 17:30	LGA 19:05	29%	12%	0.7%	73%
AA 4471 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 18:11	LGA 19:48	31%	14%	0.6%	60%
DL 5333 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 10:20	LGA 11:55	25%	16%	7.0%	75%
DL 5329 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 14:44	LGA 16:21	39%	19%	17.8%	61%
DL 5348 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 19:21	LGA 20:56	63%	24%	19.2%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON