Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:31 am at Norfolk); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: F9 3783 at 19:41, 50%.

Nonstops today


F9 3783 Frontier Flight history →	ORF 19:41	MCO 21:56	50%	19%	3.6%	82%worse than usual
F9 2287 Frontier Flight history →	ORF 21:34	MCO 23:47	54%	18%	3.2%	73%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ORF 09:55 → BWI 10:55WN 4904	4h 00m Baltimore	BWI 14:55 → MCO 17:26WN 2541	7h 31m	100%	79%
United Details →	ORF 10:48 → ORD 12:27UA 5901 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Chicago	ORD 14:48 → MCO 18:39UA 2654	7h 51m	93%	73%
American Details →	ORF 11:58 → ORD 13:31AA 4643 · flown by Republic	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 15:08 → MCO 19:03AA 2064	7h 05m	97%	73%
United Details →	ORF 10:45 → IAD 11:48UA 2066	3h 49m Dulles	IAD 15:37 → MCO 17:59UA 1101	7h 14m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	ORF 12:15 → BWI 13:20WN 3185	3h 10m Baltimore	BWI 16:30 → MCO 19:00WN 176	6h 45m	100%	69%
American Details →	ORF 10:54 → PHL 12:09AA 6122 · flown by Piedmont	2h 19m Philadelphia	PHL 14:28 → MCO 17:07AA 1646	6h 13m	98%	68%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 12:58 → MCO 14:29DL 1576	6h 29m	96%	67%
Southwest Details →	ORF 15:30 → MDW 16:35WN 3187	2h 05m Chicago	MDW 18:40 → MCO 22:16WN 2923	6h 46m	97%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ORF 10:45 → IAD 11:48UA 2066	47m Dulles	IAD 12:35 → MCO 14:58UA 2206	4h 13m	38%	28%
American Details →	ORF 17:42 → DCA 18:55AA 5338 · flown by PSA	57m Washington	DCA 19:52 → MCO 22:13AA 2139	4h 31m	57%	27%
American Details →	ORF 18:08 → CLT 19:28AA 2519	47m Charlotte	CLT 20:15 → MCO 22:00AA 3200	3h 52m	28%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON