Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3192 PBI 14:45 → ISP 17:25 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest B6 544 PBI 13:13 → ISP 15:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3192 Southwest Flight history →	PBI 14:45	ISP 17:25	19%	6%	0.8%	79%
B6 444 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 11:05	ISP 13:50	23%	7%	0.9%	66%
B6 544 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 13:13	ISP 15:58	25%	9%	0.9%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON