tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PBI 07:00 → ATL 08:50DL 1352 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 10h 12m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → PBI 12:25 → DTW 15:20DL 2926 3h 00m Detroit DTW 18:20 → LAX 20:04DL 852 10h 39m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 1376 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326 10h 05m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PBI 06:00 → EWR 08:54UA 2158 1h 51m Newark EWR 10:45 → LAX 13:41UA 2679 10h 41m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → PBI 09:00 → ATL 10:47DL 1106 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 10h 17m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → PBI 07:08 → PHL 09:52AA 2642 2h 58m Philadelphia PHL 12:50 → LAX 15:35AA 2944 11h 27m 99% 79%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 06:10 → MCO 07:10WN 3083 2h 10m Orlando MCO 09:20 → LAX 11:25WN 4495 8h 15m 100% 78%
JetBlueDetails → PBI 06:46 → JFK 09:35B6 854 1h 24m New York JFK 10:59 → LAX 14:02B6 423 10h 16m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PBI 18:54 → ORD 21:29AA 2275 1h 01m Chicago ORD 22:30 → LAX 00:52 +1AA 1209 8h 58m 74% 55%
AmericanDetails → PBI 14:14 → DFW 16:28AA 2276 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:30 → LAX 18:44AA 1972 7h 30m 74% 48%
UnitedDetails → PBI 17:05 → IAH 18:59UA 1752 51m Houston IAH 19:50 → LAX 21:26UA 483 7h 21m 60% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON