Today: AA 2642 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet today AA 2642 PBI 07:08 → PHL 09:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 2582 PBI 20:20 → PHL 23:06 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2642 American Flight history →	PBI 07:08	PHL 09:52	8%	3%	1.8%	98%
AA 2271 American Flight history →	PBI 12:51	PHL 15:37	16%	8%	2.1%	86%
AA 2280 American Flight history →	PBI 16:05	PHL 18:54	26%	11%	2.2%	54%
F9 2582 Frontier Flight history →	PBI 20:20	PHL 23:06	35%	18%	1.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON