Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: AS 2192 at 21:30, 14%.

Safest bet today AS 2192 PDX 21:30 → ANC 00:36 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AS 1406 PDX 14:32 → ANC 17:19 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 2192 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	PDX 21:30	ANC 00:36	14%	6%	1.2%	79%
AS 1455 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:48	ANC 20:35	31%	6%	0.2%	87%worse than usual
AS 271 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:50	ANC 20:38	31%	6%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
AS 1565 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:30	ANC 17:16	32%	6%	0.3%	85%worse than usual
AS 1406 Alaska	PDX 14:32	ANC 17:19	33%	5%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON