Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1325 PDX 23:12 → DTW 06:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1327 PDX 11:59 → DTW 19:12 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1325 Delta	PDX 23:12	DTW 06:25	14%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 919 Delta Flight history →	PDX 23:15	DTW 06:22	15%	5%	0.8%	79%
DL 2171 Delta Flight history →	PDX 11:55	DTW 19:04	17%	4%	0.2%	83%
DL 1327 Delta	PDX 11:59	DTW 19:12	20%	4%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON