Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:10 am at Portland); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:45, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 2285 American Flight history →	PDX 22:30	PHL 06:43	20%	6%	2.7%	82%
AA 3090 American Flight history →	PDX 12:35	PHL 20:57	24%	8%	0.6%	82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PDX 18:03 → SFO 19:53UA 1656	3h 27m San Francisco	SFO 23:20 → PHL 07:50 +1UA 2854	10h 47m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:46 → MSP 17:01DL 2415	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	9h 10m	97%	81%
American Details →	PDX 17:28 → PHX 20:10AA 2288	2h 55m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → PHL 06:43 +1AA 2301	10h 15m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:55 → DTW 19:04DL 2171	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	8h 21m	99%	77%
American Details →	PDX 11:26 → ORD 17:42AA 2284	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 21:06 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 3177	9h 56m	95%	76%
American Details →	PDX 17:08 → LAX 19:42AA 6189 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 23:42 → PHL 07:57 +1AA 2758	11h 49m	100%	76%
United Details →	PDX 11:16 → SFO 13:07UA 1613	3h 35m San Francisco	SFO 16:42 → PHL 01:23 +1UA 2619	11h 07m	100%	76%
American Details →	PDX 15:31 → PHX 18:12AA 2986	3h 50m Phoenix	PHX 22:02 → PHL 05:35 +1AA 1188	11h 04m	96%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PDX 11:26 → ORD 17:42AA 2284	58m Chicago	ORD 18:40 → PHL 21:58AA 2443	7h 32m	71%	52%
American Details →	PDX 11:54 → DFW 17:49AA 2287	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242	8h 03m	59%	36%
American Details →	PDX 13:34 → DFW 19:30AA 2286	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542	8h 01m	54%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON