tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:33 am at Portland)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AS 2317 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 10:47 SBA 13:05 7% 0% 2.3% 93%
AS 2029 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 17:48 SBA 20:04 9% 4% 1.1% 91%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:30 → SMF 07:00WN 3211 1h 10m Sacramento SMF 08:10 → SBA 09:37WN 2319 4h 07m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 2h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 6h 18m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 05:00 → LAS 07:10WN 344 2h 00m Las Vegas LAS 09:10 → SBA 10:37WN 4292 5h 37m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 04m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:46AA 3784 · flown by Envoy 6h 26m 97% 83%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 12:25 → OAK 14:10WN 4928 3h 50m Oakland OAK 18:00 → SBA 19:10WN 590 6h 45m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 59m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest 4h 51m 89% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 55m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 8h 02m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PDX 17:28 → PHX 20:10AA 2288 1h 04m Phoenix PHX 21:14 → SBA 22:57AA 1855 5h 29m 69% 50%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon 47m Seattle SEA 15:30 → SBA 18:03AS 468 4h 15m 36% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON