tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:39 pm at Portland); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: OO 3311 at 17:34, 46%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3311 SkyWest PDX 17:34 TUS 20:33 46% 30% 0.6% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PDX 16:25 → LAS 18:40WN 4732 3h 20m Las Vegas LAS 22:00 → TUS 23:30WN 354 7h 05m 100% 65%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411 2h 42m Denver DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12UA 1762 7h 22m 95% 62%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:25 → LAX 15:47DL 2766 3h 34m Los Angeles LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 93% 60%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 14:45 → DEN 18:20WN 2519 3h 25m Denver DEN 21:45 → TUS 22:50WN 4313 8h 05m 100% 60%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 18:00 → LAS 20:15WN 2256 1h 35m Las Vegas LAS 21:50 → TUS 23:17WN 352 5h 17m 89% 56%
AmericanDetails → PDX 15:31 → PHX 18:12AA 2986 2h 37m Phoenix PHX 20:49 → TUS 21:47AA 6309 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 85% 56%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 17:00 → PHX 19:40WN 1048 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 22:35 → TUS 23:32WN 1439 6h 32m 95% 52%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:59 → SFO 15:11UA 751 1h 24m San Francisco SFO 16:35 → TUS 18:49UA 5962 · flown by SkyWest 5h 50m 77% 50%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PDX 18:03 → SFO 19:53UA 1656 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 20:57 → TUS 23:26UA 5688 · flown by SkyWest 5h 23m 61% 42%
AmericanDetails → PDX 13:45 → ORD 19:50AA 3303 1h 09m Chicago ORD 20:59 → TUS 22:42AA 2661 8h 57m 60% 34%
AmericanDetails → PDX 15:31 → PHX 18:12AA 2986 55m Phoenix PHX 19:07 → TUS 20:01AA 6370 · flown by SkyWest 4h 30m 40% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON