Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:17 am at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 38–45% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2122 PHL 10:57 → AUS 14:07 · 38% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1314 PHL 19:54 → AUS 23:00 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2122 American	PHL 10:57	AUS 14:07	38%	11%	0.6%	no record
AA 1401 American Flight history →	PHL 11:03	AUS 13:52	43%	11%	0.5%	76%worse than usual
AA 1314 American Flight history →	PHL 19:54	AUS 23:00	45%	15%	0.5%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON