Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:12 pm at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 29–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2253 PHL 22:14 → CLE 23:50 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest OH 5287 PHL 16:49 → CLE 18:34 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2253 American Flight history →	PHL 22:14	CLE 23:50	29%	9%	0.5%	74%
AA 981 American	PHL 22:04	CLE 23:39	31%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 1209 American	PHL 15:00	CLE 16:35	35%	11%	0.3%	no record
OH 5287 PSA	PHL 16:49	CLE 18:34	35%	15%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON