Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:31 pm at Philadelphia); 6 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: AA 4361 at 21:50 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–45%.

Safest bet today AA 4361 PHL 21:50 → CMH 23:41 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2837 PHL 20:03 → CMH 21:41 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4361 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 21:50	CMH 23:41	14%	4%	0.2%	81%
AA 1405 American	PHL 16:49	CMH 18:37	35%	12%	0.7%	no record
AA 2837 American	PHL 20:03	CMH 21:41	45%	16%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON