Today: AA 1670 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–37%.

Safest bet today AA 1670 PHL 05:00 → DFW 07:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2533 PHL 17:49 → DFW 20:34 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1670 American Flight history →	PHL 05:00	DFW 07:35	15%	4%	0.8%	94%
AA 1751 American Flight history →	PHL 05:06	DFW 07:45	15%	5%	0.8%	92%
AA 2964 American Flight history →	PHL 07:09	DFW 09:50	22%	7%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
AA 583 American Flight history →	PHL 07:04	DFW 09:43	24%	6%	0.9%	90%worse than usual
AA 1830 American	PHL 08:30	DFW 11:20	25%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 415 American Flight history →	PHL 12:52	DFW 15:31	25%	7%	1.8%	73%
AA 1692 American Flight history →	PHL 08:20	DFW 11:03	26%	7%	0.9%	88%worse than usual
AA 812 American Flight history →	PHL 09:07	DFW 11:45	27%	6%	0.9%	63%
AA 2356 American Flight history →	PHL 16:22	DFW 19:09	30%	9%	1.9%	69%
F9 3985 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:57	DFW 08:43	31%	16%	1.8%	73%
AA 629 American	PHL 20:30	DFW 23:17	31%	9%	2.2%	no record
AA 3326 American Flight history →	PHL 10:47	DFW 13:35	33%	8%	0.8%	76%
AA 402 American Flight history →	PHL 15:00	DFW 17:50	33%	9%	1.8%	68%
AA 808 American Flight history →	PHL 20:12	DFW 22:53	33%	9%	1.6%	66%
AA 404 American	PHL 15:17	DFW 17:53	33%	8%	2.1%	no record
AA 417 American Flight history →	PHL 11:02	DFW 13:38	36%	9%	0.8%	76%worse than usual
AA 2947 American Flight history →	PHL 17:38	DFW 20:25	37%	9%	1.6%	55%
AA 2533 American Flight history →	PHL 17:49	DFW 20:34	37%	9%	2.1%	76%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	47m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	5h 14m	87%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON