Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:24 am at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 5478 at 21:05, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5478 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 21:05	DSM 23:07	31%	14%	1.1%	76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 17:40 → ORD 19:26AA 1012	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 22:31 → DSM 00:01 +1AA 4442 · flown by Republic	7h 21m	90%	80%
Southwest Details →	PHL 17:20 → MDW 18:30WN 2756	3h 35m Chicago	MDW 22:05 → DSM 23:35WN 4279	7h 15m	95%	76%
United Details →	PHL 11:38 → ORD 13:06UA 2207	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 16:15 → DSM 17:33UA 2836	6h 55m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	2h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 15:40 → DSM 16:54DL 4913 · flown by Endeavor	6h 18m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	6h 50m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	1h 58m Detroit	DTW 16:18 → DSM 17:13DL 5345 · flown by Endeavor	5h 39m	96%	71%
United Details →	PHL 16:14 → DEN 18:25UA 2644	2h 42m Denver	DEN 21:07 → DSM 00:01 +1UA 1213	8h 47m	95%	70%
American Details →	PHL 16:55 → CLT 18:58AA 3030	3h 34m Charlotte	CLT 22:32 → DSM 00:10 +1AA 1393	8h 15m	100%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHL 17:00 → ORD 18:33UA 308	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DSM 21:22UA 1325	5h 22m	72%	55%
American Details →	PHL 19:35 → CLT 21:29AA 1661	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 22:32 → DSM 00:10 +1AA 1393	5h 35m	66%	46%
United Details →	PHL 19:00 → ORD 20:33UA 2797	52m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839	4h 56m	45%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON