Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1850 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1850 PHL 07:04 → FLL 09:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 4439 PHL 13:54 → FLL 16:55 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1850 American Flight history →	PHL 07:04	FLL 09:55	13%	3%	1.2%	91%
B6 375 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 06:00	FLL 08:47	14%	6%	0.6%	71%
AA 1333 American Flight history →	PHL 07:12	FLL 10:03	16%	4%	1.0%	79%
F9 2609 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 06:00	FLL 08:53	18%	8%	0.9%	74%
AA 695 American Flight history →	PHL 10:45	FLL 13:38	18%	5%	0.9%	83%
AA 1478 American	PHL 10:47	FLL 13:29	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
B6 745 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 08:05	FLL 10:53	24%	7%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
AA 1855 American Flight history →	PHL 12:12	FLL 15:05	24%	5%	0.9%	66%
AA 3241 American Flight history →	PHL 14:05	FLL 16:58	26%	5%	1.0%	54%
AA 2524 American	PHL 13:02	FLL 15:55	27%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 2185 American Flight history →	PHL 18:30	FLL 21:24	28%	6%	0.8%	50%
F9 4455 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:56	FLL 10:54	28%	9%	0.9%	74%
AA 1864 American Flight history →	PHL 19:20	FLL 22:25	28%	7%	0.9%	69%
AA 2718 American	PHL 13:59	FLL 16:52	30%	5%	1.2%	no record
B6 2275 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 13:57	FLL 16:40	37%	14%	0.6%	65%
F9 4439 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 13:54	FLL 16:55	37%	15%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON