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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1035 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1035 PHL 07:05 → LAX 09:52 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 738 PHL 22:05 → LAX 00:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time
Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 1035 American Flight history → PHL 07:05 LAX 09:52 13% 4% 0.9% 96%
AA 2408 American Flight history → PHL 11:00 LAX 13:46 16% 5% 1.0% 83%
AA 2944 American Flight history → PHL 12:50 LAX 15:34 16% 6% 1.2% 89%
AA 824 American Flight history → PHL 08:26 LAX 11:14 18% 3% 0.9% 87%
AA 2031 American Flight history → PHL 13:22 LAX 16:05 21% 6% 1.2% 79%
AA 798 American Flight history → PHL 15:35 LAX 18:20 22% 9% 1.2% 73%
AA 2197 American Flight history → PHL 19:52 LAX 22:55 28% 8% 1.2% 54%
AA 1284 American Flight history → PHL 18:01 LAX 20:45 28% 8% 1.3% 46%
AA 738 American Flight history → PHL 22:05 LAX 00:50 28% 6% 1.3% 62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:10 → IAD 07:19UA 3693 · flown by Republic 1h 51m Dulles IAD 09:10 → LAX 11:39UA 1868 8h 29m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 2h 00m Minneapolis MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102 8h 30m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 18m Chicago ORD 08:48 → LAX 11:26UA 2814 8h 26m 98% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON