Today: one nonstop, OH 5291 at 22:11, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OH 5291 PHL 22:11 → MHT 23:33 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5291 PSA	PHL 22:11	MHT 23:33	20%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 5840 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 12:55	MHT 14:29	11%	3%	1.4%	89%
AA 5966 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 22:00	MHT 23:38	15%	7%	2.5%	85%
AA 5976 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 08:30	MHT 10:06	16%	6%	1.4%	84%
AA 5942 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 17:30	MHT 19:06	39%	14%	6.5%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON