Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:18 am at Philadelphia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: AA 595 at 09:12 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet today AA 595 PHL 09:12 → MSP 11:48 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3263 PHL 18:44 → MSP 20:58 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 595 American	PHL 09:12	MSP 11:48	13%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 5658 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:40	MSP 12:38	14%	4%	0.5%	88%
DL 2688 Delta Flight history →	PHL 11:36	MSP 13:21	18%	3%	0.2%	87%
DL 2679 Delta Flight history →	PHL 15:38	MSP 17:37	19%	4%	0.2%	82%
AA 5455 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 13:14	MSP 15:30	20%	4%	0.5%	71%
AA 2157 American Flight history →	PHL 13:37	MSP 15:34	21%	5%	0.2%	77%
DL 2594 Delta Flight history →	PHL 18:57	MSP 20:53	22%	6%	0.7%	73%
AA 5460 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:49	MSP 22:01	28%	9%	0.9%	70%
AA 3263 American	PHL 18:44	MSP 20:58	30%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON