Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1652 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 1652 PHL 05:05 → ORD 06:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest F9 2111 PHL 11:53 → ORD 13:18 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1652 American Flight history →	PHL 05:05	ORD 06:28	10%	5%	0.7%	83%
UA 660 United Flight history →	PHL 06:00	ORD 07:30	11%	4%	0.4%	88%
AA 2386 American Flight history →	PHL 05:40	ORD 06:59	11%	6%	0.7%	85%
UA 1811 United Flight history →	PHL 09:29	ORD 10:48	15%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 2095 American Flight history →	PHL 08:58	ORD 10:38	15%	4%	1.8%	81%
AA 2840 American Flight history →	PHL 23:03	ORD 00:29	16%	4%	1.3%	67%
AA 1047 American	PHL 09:18	ORD 10:37	17%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 1041 American Flight history →	PHL 10:35	ORD 12:09	17%	5%	1.8%	82%
AA 2925 American Flight history →	PHL 12:42	ORD 14:15	18%	5%	1.6%	79%
AA 865 American	PHL 10:27	ORD 11:46	19%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 3074 American Flight history →	PHL 07:42	ORD 09:10	20%	5%	1.6%	82%
UA 2207 United Flight history →	PHL 11:38	ORD 13:06	20%	5%	0.6%	81%
AA 1854 American Flight history →	PHL 12:50	ORD 14:10	20%	5%	1.6%	79%
AA 2307 American	PHL 11:46	ORD 13:05	22%	6%	1.8%	no record
UA 2784 United Flight history →	PHL 13:31	ORD 14:55	25%	5%	0.6%	76%
UA 2797 United Flight history →	PHL 19:00	ORD 20:33	28%	6%	0.6%	48%
AA 470 American Flight history →	PHL 15:45	ORD 17:29	30%	6%	1.8%	64%
UA 308 United Flight history →	PHL 17:00	ORD 18:33	33%	7%	0.6%	63%
UA 2665 United Flight history →	PHL 19:12	ORD 20:33	33%	6%	0.6%	55%
AA 1012 American Flight history →	PHL 17:40	ORD 19:26	35%	7%	1.3%	58%
AA 753 American	PHL 17:39	ORD 18:59	39%	8%	1.8%	no record
F9 2111 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 11:53	ORD 13:18	41%	16%	1.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON