Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:47 am at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4749 at 15:32, 31%.

Safest bet today AA 4749 PHL 15:32 → ORF 16:52 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest OH 5216 PHL 15:49 → ORF 17:04 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4749 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 15:32	ORF 16:52	31%	7%	0.4%	79%
AA 5632 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:50	ORF 21:23	45%	24%	1.3%	72%worse than usual
OH 5550 PSA	PHL 20:24	ORF 21:39	46%	23%	1.2%	no record
AA 5375 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:03	ORF 20:23	48%	23%	1.4%	76%worse than usual
OH 5216 PSA	PHL 15:49	ORF 17:04	51%	24%	1.6%	no record
AA 5859 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 13:48	ORF 15:06	26%	9%	2.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON