Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:19 am at Philadelphia); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: AA 3065 at 18:50 is the safest bet, 36% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39–52%.

Safest bet today AA 3065 PHL 18:50 → SJU 22:57 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest F9 4462 PHL 20:03 → SJU 23:58 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3065 American Flight history →	PHL 18:50	SJU 22:57	36%	12%	0.5%	62%
AA 2433 American Flight history →	PHL 18:27	SJU 22:20	39%	11%	0.5%	68%
F9 1726 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 22:59	SJU 02:59	41%	18%	1.2%	59%
B6 1047 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 12:38	SJU 16:30	42%	15%	0.5%	73%worse than usual
F9 1166 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 13:56	SJU 17:56	50%	19%	1.3%	43%
F9 4462 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 20:03	SJU 23:58	52%	24%	1.2%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON