Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:47 am at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: G4 3049 at 19:21, 32%.

Safest bet today G4 3049 PHL 19:21 → TYS 21:16 · 32% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5066 PHL 17:48 → TYS 20:00 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Weather 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


G4 3049 Allegiant	PHL 19:21	TYS 21:16	32%	23%	0.5%	no record
OH 5161 PSA	PHL 15:50	TYS 17:58	40%	24%	1.4%	no record
AA 5352 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 18:29	TYS 20:41	42%	23%	1.3%	77%worse than usual
AA 5066 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 17:48	TYS 20:00	48%	24%	1.3%	65%worse than usual
AA 5952 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 16:01	TYS 18:12	33%	13%	1.4%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON