Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Today: WN 1357 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet today WN 1357 PHX 05:05 → DAL 09:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 4708 PHX 18:31 → DAL 23:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1357 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:05	DAL 09:25	4%	1%	0.4%	100%
WN 3254 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:10	DAL 11:35	7%	1%	0.4%	86%
WN 875 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:00	DAL 12:25	10%	2%	0.4%	93%
WN 1469 Southwest	PHX 08:06	DAL 12:36	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3375 Southwest	PHX 09:06	DAL 13:35	15%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3255 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:55	DAL 15:20	16%	4%	0.7%	74%
WN 3377 Southwest	PHX 10:51	DAL 15:14	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1591 Southwest	PHX 11:46	DAL 16:09	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3256 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:25	DAL 17:50	22%	5%	0.6%	67%
WN 1336 Southwest	PHX 13:05	DAL 17:28	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4340 Southwest	PHX 15:05	DAL 19:28	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 193 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:05	DAL 23:30	28%	8%	0.6%	40%
WN 3382 Southwest	PHX 19:06	DAL 23:30	28%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 1937 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:50	DAL 19:15	28%	6%	0.6%	62%
WN 1347 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 17:50	DAL 22:15	30%	9%	0.6%	39%
WN 4708 Southwest	PHX 18:31	DAL 23:00	30%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON