Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 40–48% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4995 PHX 13:27 → DSM 17:39 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2284 PHX 18:53 → DSM 23:47 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 40% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4995 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:27	DSM 17:39	40%	12%	0.5%	92%worse than usual
WN 3228 Southwest	PHX 14:03	DSM 18:15	42%	7%	0.2%	no record
AA 568 American Flight history →	PHX 18:50	DSM 23:39	48%	19%	0.5%	55%
AA 2284 American	PHX 18:53	DSM 23:47	48%	19%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON