Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1318 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1318 PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1704 PHX 12:00 → IAH 16:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1318 United Flight history →	PHX 06:10	IAH 10:52	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 1397 United	PHX 08:28	IAH 13:23	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2812 United Flight history →	PHX 08:30	IAH 13:06	18%	5%	0.6%	67%
UA 1481 United	PHX 10:27	IAH 15:05	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1885 United Flight history →	PHX 18:47	IAH 23:30	20%	9%	0.6%	80%
UA 2198 United Flight history →	PHX 16:12	IAH 20:55	21%	7%	0.6%	79%
UA 1373 United Flight history →	PHX 12:20	IAH 17:03	22%	5%	0.6%	80%
AA 640 American Flight history →	PHX 12:18	IAH 16:59	27%	7%	1.3%	74%
AA 2357 American Flight history →	PHX 08:47	IAH 13:40	28%	6%	1.3%	67%
OO 6185 SkyWest	PHX 12:47	IAH 17:28	28%	13%	0.6%	no record
F9 4184 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 09:04	IAH 13:59	30%	10%	0.7%	78%
F9 1704 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 12:00	IAH 16:45	31%	12%	0.7%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON